Mortgage and refinancing rate today, February 12
Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates
Average mortgage rates rose yesterday, reversing Wednesday’s drop. They therefore remain in their ultra-low range.
So far this morning it seems that mortgage rates could rise moderately today. A 30-year US Treasury bond auction yesterday created less demand than expected and this is putting upward pressure on yields.
Find and lock in a low rate (June 23, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|Conventional 30 years fixed||2.8%||2.8%||+ 0.05%|
|Conventional 15 years fixed||2,362%||2,362%||Unchanged|
|5-year conventional MRA||3%||2,743%||Unchanged|
|30-year fixed FHA||2.495%||3,473%||+ 0.07%|
|15 years fixed FHA||2,438%||3.38%||+ 0.19%|
|5 years ARM FHA||2.5%||3,207%||Unchanged|
|Fixed VA over 30 years||2,362%||2,535%||Unchanged|
|VA fixed 15 years||2,125%||2,445%||Unchanged|
|5 years ARM VA||2.5%||2,386%||Unchanged|
|Prices are provided by our network of partners and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our pricing assumptions here.|
Find and lock in a low rate (June 23, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders change rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest information on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, Click here.
Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?
So far, mortgage rates seem to be moving only slightly. And whether they go up or down depends on economic news.
The biggest threat facing those deciding when to lock in their rate is an extremely important story that changes everything. For example, a new mutant strain of COVID-19 that is resistant to vaccines could bring them down. Or definitive signs of a recovery could push them higher.
But it’s more likely that improving economics as vaccines continue to roll out will gently push them up over time.
Given that current moves are small and the rewards for the float probably seem modest, my personal rate lock-in recommendations are:
- LOCK if the closure 7 days
- LOCK if the closure 15 days
- LOCK if the closure 30 days
- FLOAT if the closure 45 days
- FLOAT if the closure 60 days
But, with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine, if not better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here is a look at the state of play this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday morning, was as follows:
- the 10-year Treasury bill yield went from 1.15% to 1.20%. (Bad for mortgage rates) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular yields on Treasury bonds, although less recently
- Main stock market indices were lower at the opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and increases yields and mortgage rates. The reverse happens when the indices are lower
- Oil price fell to $ 58.41 from $ 58.67 per barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.)
- Gold price increased to $ 1,820 from $ 1,843 per ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Inched up to 67 66 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Warnings about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. The Fed is now a big player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
So use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to go up) or weak (they might go down) to build on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates now seem likely to rise.
Find and lock in a low rate (June 23, 2021)
Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you should know:
- The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (well above $ 1 trillion) are expected to exert continued downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work wonders all the time. And read “For once, the Fed is affecting mortgage rates. here’s why”If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening
- Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Lily How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
- Only “top” borrowers (with exceptional credit scores, large down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements – although they all generally follow the larger trend over time.
- When rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their fee schedules unchanged.
- Refinancing rates are generally close to those for purchases. But some types of refinancing are higher following a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates going up or down?
Today And so on
I am expecting mortgage rates to rise moderately today. But, as always, that could change as the day goes on.
The Freddie Mac Weekly Rate Report released yesterday found that mortgage rates had not budged in the past two weeks. Of course, they moved almost every day. But each change has varied between small and small. And, added together, they are canceled.
At the moment, I see no reason to believe that this will change anytime soon. Each move may get a little bigger, but it would take really big news to get them up or down quickly and sharply.
It is because the probable float gains are limited that I suggest locking. Yes, you might be missing out on the benefits of a sudden fall. But these seem unlikely. And you are also missing out on the risks of a sudden rise, even if they seem just as unlikely.
For more information on my broader thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday shortly after 10 a.m. (ET).
Over the past few months, the overall trend in mortgage rates is clearly downward. And a new all-time low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record was on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then rates rose, albeit modestly. And in Freddie’s Feb. 11 report, the weekly average was 2.73%, the same as the week before and the week before.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
In the longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, the real estate sector and mortgage rates. .
And here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
The figures in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. And they were all published between January 14 and 20:
|Forecaster||T1 / 21||T2 / 21||Q3 / 21||T4 / 21|
But, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there is certainly a widening of the gap as the year progresses.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been frightened by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to the more vanilla mortgages and refinances.
But others remain courageous. And you can still probably find the cash refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. Just shop more widely.
But, of course, you should be doing a lot of comparisons regardless of what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said:
Shopping around for your mortgage can save you money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new rate (June 23, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from several lending partners every day. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.